Tout Wars

Ode to Chris Liss

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Many years ago, a lifetime perhaps, I got into a pissing match with Chris Liss about the serial comma (or, as Vampire Weekend calls it, the Oxford comma). But who really cares about that?

Back then, Chris Liss also wrote a story for the Fantasy Football Guide about how our brains are way more adaptable than formulas and other pedantic bs we create for fantasy sports. We think better than we compute, was Chris’s point, and we would be smart to rely more on our brains than any formulas. I said then and I say now, I think he’s right.

Tonight I read something else from Chris: http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/features/2010_LissStrategy.htm

The story linked here, about how Chris won Tout Wars Mixed and the Yahoo Friends and Family League that Rotowire (Chris’s domain) runs, is excellent.

Chris also wrote a story for the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010 (on newstands now!), the magazine I edit, about the same stuff.

My point is that Chris is pretty much right. Our brains are quicker and more fluid than any formula we could create. You still need to know your league, and know the players (all the players) and how rostering them will change your team—which is what my earning and cost values and other objective measures provide—but once you’ve internalized that data, you can do better on your own than poring over some cheat sheet.

Good stuff.

The Cluelessness of WHIP

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Tout Wars AL Standings- CBSSports.com

For years, in the Fantasy Baseball Guide (which I edit), we ran the pitching stat called Ratio. Every year, people would complain and tell me that in their league they used the pitching stat called WHIP, and ask why we didn’t publish that instead.

For years, I replied that:

1) Ratio (((Hits+Walks)*9)/IP)) is much more descriptive/granular than WHIP ((Hits+Walks)/IP), and that,

2) Ratio looks better, since it’s on the same scale as ERA.

I then usually also note that I used Ratio in the leagues I played in, and if they had a problem they should do the same.

I didn’t win this argument. Many readers said they saw my point, but even if they agreed with me, the other people in their league did not, and so weren’t inclined to change. After a lengthy discussion with such readers a few years ago, I changed the magazine. We now publish WHIP instead of Ratio.

To ease the transition, the first year I included a handy WHIP to Ratio converter to cut out of the magazine, which I assume some people are still using. It featured a bodacious picture of WHIP kitten Anna Benson. Unfortunately, I’ve lost mine.

I bring this up now because I was looking at the Tout Wars AL standings just now and was struck by the WHIP category:

Team WHIP Pts Dif
Siano – MLB.com 1.32 12 0
Colton/Wolf – RotoWorld 1.34 11 0
Sam Walker – FantasyLandtheBook.com 1.34 10 0
Moyer – Baseball Info Solutions 1.37 9 2.5
Erickson – Rotowire.com 1.37 8 -1
Michaels – Creative Sports.com 1.37 7 0.5
Berry – ESPN.com 1.37 6 -2
Shandler – Baseball HQ 1.37 5 0
Peterson – STATS LLC 1.38 4 0
Collette – OwnersEdge.com 1.38 3 0
Grey – ESPN 1.41 2 0
Sheehan – Baseball Prospectus 1.42 1 0

My first reaction, assessing the three-way race between Siano, Michaels, and Shandler, is that this is unbearably close. After all, there are five teams at 1.37 and two more at 1.38. Siano is safely atop the category, but couldn’t Michaels easily gain two points? Couldn’t Shandler easily gain four?

In both cases, such gains would erase Siano’s lead. And certainly the numbers say it’s that close. It’s a virtual tie, for pete’s sake.

In fact, it’s not, but WHIP isn’t granular enough to tell you that. Here is the same rankings using Ratio.

Team Ratio Pts Dif
Siano – MLB.com 11.84 12 0
Colton/Wolf – RotoWorld 12.02 11 0
Sam Walker – FantasyLandtheBook.com 12.10 10 0
Moyer – Baseball Info Solutions 12.292 9 2.5
Erickson – Rotowire.com 12.294 8 -1
Michaels – Creative Sports.com 12.312 7 0.5
Berry – ESPN.com 12.330 6 -2
Shandler – Baseball HQ 12.367 5 0
Peterson – STATS LLC 12.387 4 0
Collette – OwnersEdge.com 12.451 3 0
Grey – ESPN 12.65 2 0
Sheehan – Baseball Prospectus 12.75 1 0

I went to the third place among the “tied” teams to show a little more information. To show how much distance there is between these tied teams, here are few facts, looking at Shandler since he’s the last of the teams with a 1.37 WHIP:

If Shandler gets 10 innings with no hits or walks his Ratio drops to 12.263, enough to pass everyone, and his WHIP drops to 1.363.

If Shandler gets 10 innings with 10 hits+walks, a pretty good performance, his ratio drops to 12.338, and he gains no points.

What if Shandler pitches 25 innings the rest of the way, with an excellent Ratio of 9.00 (a WHIP of 1.00) which would be way good, his Ratio would end up at 1.366, which would gain him two points but would still look like 1.37 on the CBSSports reports. His Ratio would drop to 12.297.

The point is that using WHIP, especially displayed to the second place, it looks like there’s a virtual tie, when the reality is that the standings are close, but it would take an extraordinarily good effort for one team to break ahead of the others. Ratio better illustrates this and it provides better and more information, which is why I still think it is a vastly superior stat.

Which is why I think you should change. Let me know when you do.

Fantasyland by Sam Walker

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raoulraoul

It’s interesting that someone is reviewing Sam Walker’s book years after it came out, but this is someone who doesn’t have any interest in fantasy baseball or fantasy punditry. What is interesting is that he pulls a couple of quotes from the book in which Sam describes how much money he’s spent to win the league. The first one seems like a reasonable investment, but the second, which comes near the end of the book, when it’s clear that victory isn’t in sight, is an alarmingly large figure.

My first thought, upon reading that, was that it mistake, it drained me of empathy for Sam’s efforts. Raoulraoul goes a little further and says that it makes him care not one bit (which he really didn’t anyway, but that’s not the point). But I think he’s overlooking something that Sam had to do in the book to make it work,  whether he won or not. He had to make the mountain high enough, and yet, he couldn’t just say that he opponents were geniuses.

They had to know lots more than him, but not so much that he–with his insider access to the baseball clubhouse–couldn’t overcome it by cramming. The 50k he spent trying ups the ante in the book, increases the drama, and makes it better yarn.

No, it doesn’t make him seem a more sensible person, or one you want to be like–and that may be a flaw–but it serves a purpose other than cluelessness.

My TOUT WARS NL Team

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Zoho Sheet – nl mixed

On Friday I published a list of the team I hoped to get in Tout Wars. For two days I thought I had a pretty good shot. But fate intervened.

The first bit of fate, I targeted Roy Oswalt for $25. I saw no reason not to bid $25 on Brandon Webb, and I got him. A little while later perennial champion Mike Lombardo bid $25 on Cole Hamels. Going once… going twice… it was clear no one was stepping in. I bid $26 and I had Hamels for $26 instead of Volquez/Cain for $18. But enough of that. If I’m ever going to actually buy the team I set out to I’m going to have to quit price enforcing pitchers.

The other story of this draft is that there were two parts. Everyone I talked to afterward said they either 1) had a good start and a bad finish, or 2) a bad start and a good finish. I had a dreadful finish, as the talent pool collapsed and I lacked a second catcher and a third baseman. I can’t stress it too much. In a 13 team NL league you have to fill those slots early. There aren’t enough players otherwise.

How did I fall into this mistake? I’m going to blame my computer. I don’t think computers help us draft better teams, but after spending all day at Tout on Saturday, I really didn’t want to get into formatting the printing of my lists Saturday night. Heck, I figured, I’ll just draft from my lists in Excel. It really went okay, no major glitches, I didn’t crash or anything, but when push came to shove I spent more time bookkeeping and less time managing my draft. I love computers for all sorts of tasks, but managing  a draft is best done with pen and paper, I think.

C: Russell Martin 26–As expected, Lombardo picked off two top catchers. That didn’t drive down prices, but I was resolved to get Martin, who went for $2 over my price. As one of the two best players at a scarce position, I don’t think there’s any problem at all getting him rather than being cheap and not getting him.

C-Yorvit Torrealba 3–No future in Colorado, but maybe he’ll land someplace he’ll play. This was where I landed after declining to bid more than $8 on Nick Hundley, who I really wanted. The other options were all dreck. I’m not sure I would have gotten Hundley for $9, but that was the right move. Now I have to root for a beneficial trade, wondering how he got beat out for the backup job to Sal Fasano.

1B-James Loney 18–From the fun, early part of the draft. Productive youngster at a good price. I’m very happy.

3B-Martin Prado 3–From the dismal, late part of the draft. My best choices were Prado and Rich Aurilia. The job in Atlanta is Prado’s if Chipper Jones goes down. The good news is that Chipper always gets hurt, and Prado won’t hurt me when he plays.

CI-Todd Helton 13–He was one of my targets. He’s been healthy enough to have a strong spring during which he’s hit with some power. Homers would be sweet, but if can score 400 AB with a .300 BA I’ll be happy.

2B–Kaz Matsui 12–Everyone hates him so much his steals go for market value. The injury risk is real, but the price (which isn’t cheap) makes that less important. I’m keen on Kaz this year.

SS–Troy Tulowitski 18–He destroyed my team last year. Payback, baby.

2B–Eugenio Velez 6–This was a stretch. You have to like his speed and game, and 2B was getting thin. But there are real playing time issues out there in SF. He could be painful to play.

OF–Randy Winn 14–I had him targetted, and the bidding stopped a few dollars earlier than I expected, so I’m not complaining. He’s getting older, so I count him as somewhat risky, but he’s a solid guy at a good price.

OF–Hunter Pence 24–This was the price I had for him. He’s the right age, with the right blooming talent, to make one optimistic. It’s hard to see him doing less, and there is some potential he’ll grow into more.

OF–Adam Dunn 18–I wanted Jay Bruce at 18 and he went for $24 or so. I thought Dunn would go for $24 but he fell to $18. I’ll take the trade, though Dunn’s BA kept me from going after other guys with bad BA.

OF–Craig Monroe 1–I nominated him, of course. He’s the kind of forgotten guy who makes a good endgame pick, but his spring has been strong enough I thought he’d get bid up. Nope. No love for Monroe from the room. I’m not unhappy to have him, but by nominating him when I did and getting him for a buck I created a cash crisis–too much of it–which made the rest of my afternoon miserable.

OF–Josh Anderson 6–He was the most expensive outfielder left, though the emergence of Jordan Schafer diminishes his role, perhaps totally. There is an attempt to deal him, to the White Sox perhaps, in the works, so this could work out. But right now it feels a little desperate.

UT–Carlos Gonzalez 1–My first reserve pick. Not a bad one. But I have too many hitters here with undefined or negligible roles. I blame my laptop.

P–Brandon Webb 25–An ace.

P–Cole Hamels 26–Another ace. I’m worried about his health, but given what we know now the price is a fair discount. I have to admit, I jumped in because Lombardo was going to get him. Instead he spent $20 on Gallardo.

P–Chris Carpenter 10–He owes me for wrecking my 2007. It’s payback!

P–Chris Young 12–The price was way lower than my perhaps overly optimistic one. He could crater, his arm is acting up and maybe that explains his struggles, but given the price and the breadth of my staff (which I was building) the risk seems acceptable.

P–Anibel Sanchez 3–I like starters with big league history who are approaching their mid 20s. But this is a flyer and the worst thing to do is be too attached if he starts out floundering.

P–Scott Olson 5–I have him in every league I’m in. Call it a hunch and a pitchers park.

P–Ramon Ramirez 1–He looked awfully good last year. He’s in Louisville for now, getting work he didn’t get while playing in the WBC, but he’ll be back.

P–Aaron Cook 6–You have to change with the times, as far as the Coors effect goes, and Cook has shown he can handle it. The price is less than I had budgeted for him.

P–Jon Garland 3–The league change might help, the stadium, too. He’s coming off a bad year, but most of his have been okay to good. And he’s cheap enough to dump, if need be.

The reserves are a mixed bag. Alcides Escobar could be good speed in the middle infield if the Brewers reset this year. JR Towles is a bet against I-Rod. Brian Barden is a utility possibility behind all the uncertain St. Louis infield positions. And I always have to have Corey Patterson.

Scott Pianowski announced post-draft that based on his projections this was a winning team. Not unless I do some things right during the season.

You’ll find all the draft results at toutwars.com. There will also be polls and a modified form of Doubt Wars there starting tomorrow. Feel free to comment.

Joe Sheehan’s AL Tout Wars Team

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Baseball Prospectus

I just finished praising Will Carroll for posting about his TW team, and I see that Joe did, too. 

Attention should be paid, because that’s why we all do this. If Will or Joe’s team isn’t the best, don’t be surprised. There are many opponents, and they’re all good ones. But there are still things to learn.

Will Carroll’s Tout Wars Team Unfiltered

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Baseball Prospectus

Will was invited into Tout Wars because he knows baseball and because he’s game and because he talks about stuff all the time, and that matters. I think he’s an exemplar of the information distributor in the post-publishing age, which is why his Post Tout analysis is important. Reaction in the peanut gallery during the draft thought Will was out of his depth, but looking at his team it isn’t hard to see how it could work out. As he and his helpers well know.

It probably won’t, as it won’t for 16 of the 17 in Tout Mixed League. But active engagement in the league is what makes Tout work. I expect Will won’t forget about his team.

Good luck!