The Official Site of Major League Baseball: Fantasy
The new column is out, with a look at defending against bad drafters, Jered Weaver, team save opps, and playing the saves game against lunatics. Enjoy.
Strategy
Ask Rotoman Wk 3
The Official Site of Major League Baseball: Fantasy
The new column is out, with a look at defending against bad drafters, Jered Weaver, team save opps, and playing the saves game against lunatics. Enjoy.
Straight Draft Post Mortem
The link is going to take you to a page that requires a subscription of some sort to baseballHQ.com. I’m going to tell you what Ray Murphy’s straight draft research tells me that’s of interest to all of us: Fantasy teams that finished higher, on average, than other teams in the National Fantasy Baseball Championships had younger players than teams that finished lower. They also had players who had lower reliability scores (Shandler’s system) than other teams.
I’m fairly confident that the whole idea of reliability scores is a crock. Well, not in intent, but as a measurement. Manny Ramirez earns $31-$33 every year, until we decide that’s a reliable benchmark, and then he doesn’t. The problem with all ballplayers is that by the time they can be judged reliable, they’re old enough to become unreliable.
Ray’s conclusion is right, however. You need to stock up on the reliable players, and then take chances when the choice is between a reliable mediocrity and anybody else whose pulse might beat proudly.
I know, you knew that, but seeing the excellent numbers the NFBC throws off really helps. Which is a good reason to become a baseballHQ.com subscriber. For smart fantasy baseball analysis (and lots of it) there’s no better site.
Major League Baseball
Chuck James and other young pitchers, on being a powa-hatah, second half recommendations among those who wrecked the first half, and chatter about Gary Matthews and the Tampa Bay bullpen.
WasWatching.com:
Presents evidence that A-Rod is having a really crumby season when the Yankees are trailing by one or two runs, but it’s only 54 plate appearances. Everybody seems to have an opinion about whether A-Rod is always so bad in the clutch (though it should be noted, as the writer here does, that A-Rod has four hits after the seventh inning that put the Yankees ahead, while Justin Morneau leads the league with five).
Last year A-Rod had a couple of game score situations in which he didn’t hit nearly as well as in all other situations. One of them was down by two runs, but the other was up by two runs. He had a 1.096 OPS when down by one run.
In 2004 he was incredible in down by one run (1.416 OPS), fair when down by two runs (.910 OPS), sucked when down by three or up by two (.701/.556) and not so hot when the team was up by five runs (.724).
My conclusion? I love baseballmusings.com and David Pinto’s amazing database. Unconvincing attempts to impugn A-Rod’s clutchiness? Not so much.
Major League Baseball
The new one is online. What are the prospects of Roy Oswalt, Ben Sheets, Mark Prior and John Patterson as they threaten, at least, to return from the DL. Got too much of a category? How should you decide what to deal? Will Bobby Abreu, Marcus Giles and Carlos Lee be dealt before this year’s trading deadline? Chatter about Chad Billingsley and the schedule, round out this week’s issue.
This Week’s Ask Rotoman
The new one has been released, looking at the long term potential of three rookie second basemen (and not even including Josh Barfield), asking the musical question is Joe Borowski for real, contemplating the relative values of Pedro Feliz and Justin Morneau, and comparing a rotation of free-agent starters to one good starter. There’s lots to read, so get going!
Do the Right Thing
MLB – Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies Box Score Wednesday May 3, 2006 – Yahoo! Sports
For the second night this week Rheal Cormier got the win in relief for the Phillies. This bothers me because last week in the Tout Wars claims I did the wrong thing and listed Elizardo Ramirez ahead of Cormier on my sheet. My thinking had something to do with Ramirez’s good game at Washington earlier in the week, but despite his good control the chances of Ramirez having ongoing success are pretty small because he can’t dominate hitters at all. At his best, with the Reds’ juggernaut behind him, he gets a win or two with passable qualitatives. Meanwhile, a reliable middle reliever like Cormier isn’t going to hurt you, and in a week like this one may help a lot. A reminder why it’s better to play safe, rather than try to catch lightning in a bottle.
Ask Rotoman Again
Major League Baseball : Fantasy
The new one is out, with some advice if you lost Derrek Lee, thoughts about trading Carlos Beltran, an evaluation of just how good Chris Shelton is, and a survey of the best young pitchers, this year and next.
This Week’s Ask Rotoman
Major League Baseball : Fantasy : Fantasy
I’ve been traveling some of Appalachia’s blue highways this week, which has brought the blog to a complete stop, though Ask Rotoman appeared Wednesday as usual. Will Travis Hafner sit again during interleague play? How much difference does it make having Roy Oswalt rather than Mark Buehrle? How do you sort our oddball categories and pick players who suit them? Clemens? Podsednick? Betemit?