Which pitcher earned the most in the season’s first four weeks? Dallas Keuchel earned $40.
Which pitcher who wasn’t bought was earning the most after four weeks? Nick Martinez earned $24.
Our best hitter the first four weeks? Nelson Cruz earned $51.
And Tim Beckham is the undrafted hitter who is earning the most, with $12.
Each month we publish the 5×5 roto prices, along with a listing of what these player’s cost on auction day, so you can judge how players are performing versus expectations. This month we let the stats run into May a bit because of the late start to the season.
These are 5×5 stats based on a 24-team mixed league, so AL or NL peculiarities are ignored. This makes the prices a little less exact, because league context does affect them, but the differences are small and complicate issues significantly.
I received the following in email earlier today. It is a computer generated analysis of the Mock I did for Baseball Prospectus earlier this week. I can’t contest the wisdom of the machine, which will someday replace the fantasy experts at CBSsports, at least. I apparently have a terrible team. But its writing is dismal.
I do hope they send out a story after the season, showing how these teams actually did, and how good or bad their analysis actually was.
By CBSsports Interactive
The final victory is still up for grabs, but Brian Walton have taken a good first step, winding up with the top ranked draft. Coach Walton’s squad, led by Jose Altuve, are projected to wind up with 120 category points. That’s 55 more points than you are projected to come up with. You will have all year to prove us wrong, but for now, you are slated to finish in last place.
Bret Sayre are expected to be better than that overall, and much better on the outfielders front, where they have the best group in the league. Coach Sayre can trot out Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley, and George Springer into the starting lineup. Steve, meanwhile, are the worst in the league in that area, with Allen Craig, Melvin Upton, and Drew Stubbs gracing the starting lineup. Coach Moyer won’t be able to blame outside factors for that soft spot in the roster either, given that they had the 2nd easiest path through the draft.
Speaking of draft difficulty, you had it pretty rough, as you ended up with less value available to you than all but two other teams. You had to watch as good value picks like David Price, J.D. Martinez, and Dallas Keuchel were snatched right before it was your turn.
Turning to individual picks, we tapped Steve as having made the best pickup with Cliff Lee in the 169th slot. He was projected to be off the board a full 85 picks earlier. On the other hand, Fake Teams made the worst move of the draft. Coach Guilfoyle selected Starlin Castro with the 57th pick, which we pegged as a serious reach.
Your best pickup of the draft was Corey Kluber, who was expected to have been selected in the 25th slot, but who you got with pick #39. However, you mixed in some duds as well, the worst of whom was Daniel Murphy, taken 74 spots ahead of what his average draft position suggests.
None of the most expensive hitters show up on the list of profitmakers, because the known hitters are paid for on auction day. The Top 20 is a mix of guys having explosively good years after being paid to be a little above average, and the unknowns who weren’t bought or were taken in the end game, who have turned out to be pretty productive. It’s hard to look back to March and see how we could have predicted any of these breakouts, but the teams that landed these guys have a leg up on the rest of us.
Profits are where it’s at, the more you have the more likely you are to win, and they can be found among starters and relievers, including setup guys. Starting studs can still turn out to be a bargain, but the differencemaker in pitching is the number of impact players who are either unbought in the auction or picked up for a buck or two in the end game.
I read somewhere that since the earliest days of baseball pitchers, on average, through on average 100 pitches per start. Seems that pitchers would mix up very long and very short starts, and end up at 100 pitches generally.
Today, I found at the Sabernomics website, actual data on pitch counts over the years from 1988 to 2009, which shows much the same thing. Pitchers used to throw many more pitches in a game back then than they ever do today, but they also sometimes threw far fewer. And on average, the results are pretty similar.
This NY Times story digs deep into Facebook Like data to discover what teams Facebookers are fans of, then maps that to the Facebooker’s ages when their teams won World Series.
When I was eight the Yankees lost the World Series to the Cardinals, then spent the next 15 years in CBS and Steinbrenner hell. It was hard not to like Horace Clark, but it was in those years when I was nine to 17 that my love affair with the Mets took hold.
Over at rockremnants.com I think we see constant evidence that the bands we fell in love with when we were 15-25 or so are the ones that stick with us forever. Baseball seems to ring a somewhat earlier chord.