Where in the draft do you take Albert Pujols?

HQ POLL

BaseballHQ has been running this poll after Ron Shandler wrote last week that you shouldn’t take Pujols at all given the injury risk.

Pujols’ three homers since are a strong argument for his ability to continue to hit despite his elbow problems.

But assuming the Cardinals suck, it makes far more sense for him to bail early this year to save next year than to miss next year to the recovery. Right now I think that makes his price $22, though I couldn’t help myself and voted for taking him No. 7-10 in a mixed league draft.

He’s not sure to fail.

Doctor confirms Pujols has tear, but won’t need immediate surgery – MLB

ESPN

The issue here is what do you think you should pay for an Albert Pujols who could shut down at any time. The rehab from the surgery is supposed to be eight months, which is why it didn’t make sense to do it last October.

Eight months back from next February is  May, which is probably too soon to count the Cardinals out even if you’re a pessimist.

But unless the Cards are really in it come June 15th or so, it makes sense to shut Albert down and focus on the last two years of his contract with them. A half a season of Albert is worth about $20, though at this point uncertainty is going to drive his price to $30. I’m going to go with $22.

Maybe the Pujols uncertainty is a good reason to start Colby Rasmus in the minors. Or it may be a good reason to promote him aggressively, the way the Cards once upon a time promoted Pujols. That’s a story worth watching closely.

Patton$ on Disk 08 is here.

Support Ask Rotoman Page

The link takes you to the page where you can now download the software, Excel and Text files (after paying, of course).

If you’re a past user of the software you’ll be getting the same Windows program with this year’s data, updated weekly through the first week of April.

New users should know that the P$oD software runs superfast in Windows, but comes with a bit of a learning curve. It is designed specifically for draft preparation, though it also comes with an auction module for use during your draft. Note that all the data is available outside of the program, too, and many people who buy the package never run the software at all.

Ask Rotoman: Fantasy 411

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

A reader asks for the best of a long list of free agents, considering he can only take one for the rest of the season. Another wants me to tell him who to offer to get Ichiro, since he needs batting average. A third, a bastard, asks me about my miserable Tout Wars NL team.

Reading my answer to the third question, now, later, I wonder if I gave enough explanation. Certainly a big part of why my team sucks is because Chris Carpenter, the linch pin of my pitching strategy, crashed on Opening Day. But my bigger point was that I bet on Clay Hensley, Jason Jennings and Zach Duke, hoping that one would be good and one would be okay, and all three failed.

That, more than Carpenter’s injury, crashed my season. And it is probably a good idea in next week’s Ask Rotoman to look at what $4-$9 starters paid dividends. Unless you think we should look at something else.

Ask away at askrotoman@gmail.com. Thanks.

Carpenter to undergo elbow surgery

Yahoo! Sports

This past Wednesday I wrote about Chris Carpenter:

So how is Carpenter doing? He threw Tuesday and said he felt fine, though we all know from experience that a pitcher always say that about his arm unless the darn thing is about to fall off (or maybe already has fallen off). Past history suggests that if all goes well, he’ll be back in two to three weeks, and maybe he’ll be able to slog through the season.

Or, of course, after a few more promising episodes throwing off a mound and then in a simulated game, he’ll be pulled from a rehab start and shut down to have surgery. He then might be in position to try to help the Cardinals secure a playoff spot in September.

We now know that it was the latter possibility that came to pass. I bring this up because I pursued Carpenter aggressively in Tout Wars NL and now face likely ruin this season in that league because of it. Carpenter’s demise is a reminder why the so-called experts don’t push the prices of any starting pitchers, which is why I’ve had pretty good success in recent years in Tout Wars loading up on starters.

Just not this year. Will I go after the best starter again next year? Despite the risk, if the prices for top starters stay low, I’ll be there.

Last Patton $ on Disk 2007 Update is Live

Ask Rotoman News

For those who have been tracking the P$oD07 updates all spring, the final one was posted last night. It includes the Patton software, merge files for those looking for updated bid prices from Alex Patton, Rotoman, and Mike Fenger, my latest (and last) projections for the year, and text lists and an Excel file for those who simply want the stuff.

Thanks to all of this year ‘s and future customers. May you kick butt all season long.

Patton $ on Disk 2007 March 29 Update is Live

The Prices are updated

If you’re looking for a cheat sheet with Alex Patton’s and my updated 4×4 prices, as well Mike Fenger’s 5×5 prices, along with my projections, updated through Thursday, at a price, click this link. You also get Alex’s excellent roto evaluation software, though you probably won’t want to tackle learning the software if your auction is this weekend.

Patton $ on Disk 2007 March 22 Update is Live

Ask Rotoman News

The newest data is posted for purchasers of the Patton $ on Disk 2007 program. There are also Excel spreadsheets and text files, for those who don’t want to learn a program, but want Alex Patton and Rotoman’s 4×4 bid prices, or Mike Fenger’s excellent 5×5 bid prices.

But don’t buy the program because you want to see Jon Papelbon changed from a starter to a closer. I’ve stubbornly projected Papelbon as a closer (albeit a cheap one) all spring. Sometimes you just know a brain trust is going to come to its senses.

Patton $ on Disk 2007 update posted

Ask Rotoman News

Newly revised bid prices and updated projections with tweaking to reflect the latest news (Javy Lopez released!) is now posted in original program files, as an Excel file and in text files. Follow the link to buy the package.

If you already bought it go to the original download page for the updates.

Patton $ on Disk 2007 update is now available

Learn More Here

The March 1 update, including updated Patton 4×4 prices, and new Rotoman 4×4 prices and Mike Fenger 5×5 prices, along with improved projections has been posted. If you’re interested in learning more and perhaps buying the program, go to www.askrotoman.com.