I play in a Head to Head points league, with -1 for strikeouts and -1 for errors.
My friend requested a trade where Â he gives me Giancarlo Stanton and I give him Ryan Braun. I was about to hit yes when I decided to look at the stats and Giancarlo strikes out an awful lot more than Braun. He also commits more errors. Should I go for the boom-or-bust Stanton, or keep my very solid Braun.
“First I Look At the Stats”
Good idea to look at the stats. Here’s some back-of-the-envelope projections:
Braun should score a lot more runs (+30), hit roughly the same number of homers and drive in a lot more runs (+20). That’s the benefit of playing on a better team in a better stadium. Braun will have a higher batting average, and, oh, he will run more than Stanton, too.
Braun also has an advantage in strikeouts (125 to 140 for Stanton) and errors (6 vs. 8), but these differences are small beer.
On Stanton’s side, he’s still young and is likely to have some years in which he hits more homers than Braun ever did. But it’s hard to see that happening as long as he plays in Miami, so that’s not relevant this year.
Also on Stanton’s side, Braun is older, which usually leads to an increase in strikeouts at some point. But Braun isn’t worrisome old yet at all, so if you’re looking for an edge there you’re reaching.
Obviously, it’s your decision, but I’d hang onto Braun.