My friend Todd Zola makes an excellent point about Player Projections today in a story at SI.com.
I bring this up because I’m working on the projections for Patton $ Online, which we’ll be releasing next week. People ask how that set of projections is different than the projections that appear in the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010 (on newsstands now!), and a big part of it goes to Todd’s point: Most player projections are similar when it comes to the evaluation of the player’s talent, it’s often in the playing time that they vary.
When we’re putting the Guide together in December, there are still hundreds of free agents available. While it’s easy to project playing time for the guys who are sure to be starters, because we know they’re going to get 550-650 AB if they’re healthy (and obviously a similar dynamic is in place for pitchers), but for guys on the edge, who may platoon or even be benched, playing time is hard to predict until they’ve settled on teams.
The Patton $ projections incorporate all the team and league changes into the mix, and are updated during the spring to reflect the most recent changes. In addition, the Patton $ projections include more detailed categories, like extra base hits for hitters, and homers allowed for pitchers.