Is it too late to win?

KFFL – Baseball HQ

There is something weird going on at KFFL. Old stories from BaseballHQ are showing up, which is fine, but with new dates. This story is from 2003, I think, but the data is important. I’m not so sure about the conclusion.

It is good to know when you can count on the overall volatility of the standings to have “setttled.” I’m not sure I wouldn’t have guessed mid May, but I like some evidence.

I’m also sure that the volatility by category indexes, showing that stolen bases and saves change the least, is counterintuitive and correct. Alas, I’m pretty sure that the article’s conclusion, that this means buy steals and saves on draft day and trade for power later, is wrong, for all the reasons the article points out these categories are the most stable.

Still, despite its date of birth, this and probably other baseballHQ goldies are well worth checking out at KFFL.

One thought on “Is it too late to win?

  1. I’ve played in a number of non-expert leagues over the years, and there is something to be said for both approaches.

    Indeed, buying one closer early and then dealing them after you’ve built up a cushion can be useful…if you’re in a league where at least one team, but preferably 2-3, have no closers. You’ll probably finish with 3-4 points in saves and get another player back for your trouble.

    The problem, though, is that most owners in mature leagues understand this. Come May 1, the price tag starts dropping. Swapping out Jason Bay for Jon Papelbon might be fair, but the Bay owner knows why the Papelbon owner is knocking on his door. He’ll try to offer a lesser OF. The Papelbon owner can wait, but with every week that goes by, he loses much of his leverage, since getting 25 saves isn’t going to have the same impact as getting 35. The goal is to pass the other owners with 2 closers, and by mid-May it might already be too late.

    Of course this is my experience in one league. I was in a league years ago where the market for closers was always sky-high no matter what. Even owners who had collected cheap CIW who lucked into jobs and entered the year with 3-4 closers refused to trade them unless they got a stud hitter or two solid hitters back in return.

    Knowing your league’s market price is as important as being aware of categorical volatility. If you’re going to be able to swap out a $20 hitter for a top closer, you might pass on that top closer in the auction. On the other hand, if it’s going to take two $20 hitters to snag Joe Nathan, you might want to pony up the dough on Auction Day.

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